Mid East Public Opinion Polls
April 29 - Barak Lead Grows - The latest polls show Ehud Barak leading PM Netanyahu by 8% in round 2 of the Israeli elections, while center party candidate Yitzhak Mordechai's lead if paired against Bibi is only 2% according to the Gallup Poll. The poll was conducted among 1,400 respondents, with an error of less than 2.6%. This result is even more decisive then the trend predicted by PeaceWatch last week bases on long term analysis (See graphic trends on main page). Most interesting is the finding that Nethanyahu is losing support among Russian immigrants. 37% will vote for Nethanyahu, 30% for Barak while about a third are undecided. A month ago, Nethanyahu was leading 57% to 19%. The probable major factors in this change:
Defection of Alex Lubotzky from the Center party to Barak's One Israel Party. Lubotzky lives in Gush Etzion, on the other side of the Green Line. This has helped to neutralize the 'leftist' label that Nethanyahu has been trying to paste on Barak and Mordehai. Lubotzky is also an observant Jew.
Barak's relatively strong stand against ultra-orthodox Shas party leader Arieh Deri. Barak was the only major candidate who stated that he would not conduct coalition negotiations with Deri. Shas is particularly unbeloved of Russian immigrants, especially after the extremely effective advertising campaign by Nathan (Anatoli) Shcharansky's Yisrael Be'aliya party. The campaign brought home the humiliation and mistreatment Russian immigrants suffered at the hands of the Shas-run Ministry of Internal affairs, and promissed to take control of that office in the next government. The slogan: "MVD Pod Shas Kontrol - Nyet! MVD Pod Nash Kontrol" {MVD under Shas Control - No! MVD under our Control) has become the hit of the election campaign.
Commercials. One Israel party has more television time allotted to it than any other. It is likely that the continuous emphasis on Barak's sterling military record in One Israel party commercials has brought home the message to young voters: "leftists" are not traitors. Most respondents think Barak is more qualified to handle security than Bibi.
The Dahaf poll of 900 respondents shows similar results, except that Mordehai still leads Bibi by 9 percent in round 2.
Highlights of party results - Tommy Lapid's new Shinui party is given 3-4 seats by both Dahaf and Gallup. Shas is expected to take 10-11 seats, and support is increasing. NRP is given 6 mandates. Meretz is losing support. Details below.
Results
First Round:
Apr 29 Netanyahu 39% Barak 36% Mordechai 8%
Begin 3% Bashara 3%
Apr 21 Netanyahu 36% Barak 34% Mordechai 11% Begin 2% Bashara 4%
Apr 18 Netanyahu 38% Barak 37% Mordechai 10% Begin ?% Bashara ?%
Apr 14 Netanyahu 36% Barak 35% Mordechai 15% Begin 3% Bashara 4%
Mar 31 Netanyahu 36% Barak 33% Mordechai 12% Begin 4% Bashara 4%
Second Round:
Apr 29 1999
Netanyahu 40% Barak 48%
Apr 21 1999 Netanyahu 40% Barak 46%
Apr 29 1999
Netanyahu 40% Mordechai 42%
Apr 21 1999 Netanyahu 39% Mordechai 42%
Party Vote
Elections for Knesset: expressed in mandates
(total 120)
29.4 24.3
Party
33
32
One Israel (Labor)
8-9 8
Meretz
8-9 8-9
Arabs
8-9 12-13
Central Party
6-7 7
Yisrael Ba'aliyah (Sharansky)
4
0-2 Shinui (Lapid/Poraz)
0
0 Third Way
2-0 0
Pnina Rosenblum
23-24 26-27 Likud
3
5-6 United Right (Begin)
6-7
3-4 NRP (Mafdal)
10-11 10
Shas
4
4 Ultra Orthodox
3
0-2 Yisrael Beiteinu (Lieberman)
Do you watch the election broadcasts?
All 28% Some 25% Never 45% Don't know 2%
(Asked to those who watched the programs and said they were influenced
(5% of public)): Now certain 34% Now made uncertain 19% Neither 45%
Don't know 2%
Do you considerably agree, somewhat agree or disagree with the
following slogans:
The country has been stuck for three years: agree a lot
Considerably agree 43% Agree somewhat 13% Don't agree 38%
Netanyahu: a strong leader for Israel's future:
Considerably agree 27% Agree somewhat 12% Don't agree 55%
Barak will bend on Jerusalem
Considerably agree 23% Agree somewhat 21% Don't agree 46%
Only Mordechai can beat Bibi in a big way
Considerably agree 14% Agree somewhat 13% Don't agree 65%
Between Netanyahu and Barak, who do you think will handle the
unemployment better?
Netanyahu 22% Barak 51% Same 6% Neither 11% Don't know 5%
Between Netanyahu and Barak, who do you think will handle security
better?
Netanyahu 37% Barak 48% Same 6% Neither 4% Don't know 5%
Do you believe the story of the dybbuk in the Dimona woman is true?
Yes 35% No 53% Don't know 12% {refers to a videotape of an exorcism}
Do you believe in life after death?
Yes 44% No 42% Don't know 14%
('Maariv' 30 April, 1999)
Dahaf Poll:
The following are the results of a survey
carried out by 'Dahaf'
the week of April 30, 1999 of a representative sample of 900
Israeli adults. Survey error +/- 3.3 percentage points
1. First round:
Apr.30 Netanyahu 37% Barak 37% Mordechai 10% Begin 3% Bashara 3%
Second Round
Apr.30,1999 Netanyahu 42% Barak 50%
Apr.30,1999 Netanyahu 40% Mordechai 49%
29.4 17.3 17.2 29.1
20----20----24---27-Likud [with Tzomet thru March]
28----28----30---26--Labor
-8----13----13---15--Centrist
-2-----5-----5----4-National Union (17.2 was Begin 2 + Moledet 3
29.1 Begin 4 Moledet nothing)
-7-----8-----8----5--Meretz
-6-----6-----6----4--NRP
10----10-----9----8--Shas
-4-----4-----4----3--Agudat Yisrael/Yahadut Hatorah
-8-----5-----5----4--Yisrael B'Aliyah (Sharansky)
-2-----2-----2----2--Yisrael Beiteinu (Lieberman)
-8-----7-----7----7--Arab lists with Hadash
-0-----2-----0----0--Workers (Peretz)
-0-----2-----0----0--Retired
-3-----0-----0----0--Shinui
-2-----2-----0----0--Penina Rosenblum
12-----6-----5---15--Undecided
April 21 - Barak Maintains Slim Lead - The latest polls show that Ehud Barak is maintaining a gap of 5 percent over PM Benjamin Nethanyahu, down slightly from previous results. Combined results over three weeks show a lead of somewhat over 5% for Barak, up from 3% in combined results of 4 weeks on April 7 - which gave him a 3% lead. First round election results give Right-Wing candidate Benjamin Begin 2% as opposed to 3% in previous polls, while center party candidate Mordechai gets 11%, indicating that he did not benefit from the earlier debate, though respondents consistently indicated that he had won it. Arab candidate Azmi Basha'ara consistently gets about 4% of the vote. One poll on April 18 showed PM Netanyahu almost tying Barak and Mordechai. Reasons for this exceptional result are not given. Mordechai's share is consistently less in the most recent polls then it was previously, yet he claims that secret polls indicate that he will win the first round and go on the beat PM Benjamin Netanyahu. Noting that Simon Peres led Netanyahu by 9% at this time in 1996 and then lost the election, Mordechai claimed once again that he has no intention of quiting the race. Comparisons over a longer period show clearly that Mordechai has been steadily losing ground in both rounds. and that the undecided vote is growing (See also - graphic trends on main page)
First Round:
Apr 21 Netanyahu 36% Barak 34% Mordechai 11%
Begin 2% Bashara 4%
Apr 18 Netanyahu 38% Barak 37% Mordechai 10% Begin ?% Bashara ?%
Apr 14 Netanyahu 36% Barak 35% Mordechai 15% Begin 3% Bashara 4%
Mar 31 Netanyahu 36% Barak 33% Mordechai 12% Begin 4% Bashara 4%
Second Round
Cumulative results
April 7 - four polls over 4 weeks N = > 2000
April 21 - three polls over 2 weeks N = over 1500
April 7 - four polls over 4 weeks N = > 2000
Gap in % points
| Barak - Nethanyahu | Mordechai - Nethanyahu | |
| April 7 | 3 | 6 |
| April 21 | 5 | 2 |
Barak V.S. Netanyahu
Apr 21 1999 Netanyahu 40% Barak 46%
Apr 18 1999 Netanyahu 44.4% Barak 46.6%
Apr 14 1999 Netanyahu 41% Barak 48%
Mar 31 1999 Netanyahu 42% Barak 45%
---
Feb 16 1999 Netanyahu 44% Barak 47%
Feb 10 1999 Netanyahu 43% Barak 48%
Feb 3 1999 Netanyahu 43% Barak 49%
Jan 29 1999 Netanyahu 46% Barak 48%
Jan 24 1999 Netanyahu 43% Barak 47%
Jan 22 1999 Netanyahu 47% Barak 46%
Mordechai V.S. Netanyahu:
Apr 21 1999 Netanyahu 39% Mordechai 42%
Apr 18 1999 Netanyahu 44.3% Mordechai 44.5%
Apr 14 1999 Netanyahu 41% Mordechai 43%
Mar 31 1999 Netanyahu 38% Mordechai 44%
-----
Feb 3
1999 Netanyahu 39% Mordechai 53%
Jan 29 1999 Netanyahu 39% Mordechai 53%
Jan 24 1999 Netanyahu 44% Mordechai 49%
Jan 22 1999 Netanyahu 44% Shahak 47%
April 14 - Israeli Election Polls - In polls taken just after the televised debate between candidate Yitzhak Mordechai and PM Netanyahu, One Israel [formerly Labor] party candidate Barak has a clear lead once again, and Center party candidate Mordechai now leads PM Netanyahu by only a small percentage. This seems to vindicate Barak's strategy of staying away from the debate with Netanyahu. Following are second round results from Maariv/Gallup polls taken just after the Netanyahu-Mordechai debate:
Ma'ariv (Gallup):
Netanyahu 41% Barak 48%
Netanyahu 41% Mordechai 43%
Yediot (Dahaf):
Netanyahu 42% Barak 47%
Paradoxically, a majority of
those polled said that Mordechai had won the debate with Netanyahu:
Mordechai 56% Netanyahu 24% Neither 16% Don't know 4% Details
In depth results - (April 9, 1999) An in-depth summary of one month of election poll results reveals a slim margin for Barak against Netanyahu in the second round - probably not large enough to compensate for systematic under-reporting of right-wing voters. The larger sample size allows a breakdown by subgroups, with depressing results. The Israeli voting pattern is genetic. If your father is Ashekenazi (of European origin) you will vote for Labor and Ehud Barak. If your father is 'Sepharadi' (from Arab countries or a descendant of Spanish Jews) you will vote for Benyamin Nethanyahu and the right. The poor and uneducated vote for the right. The better educated and the rich vote for the 'left' - which is really the Israeli center. Religious Jews will vote overwhelmingly for Netanyahu, while non-religious Jews will vote for Barak or Mordehai. New immigrants from Russia will vote overwhelmingly for Netanyahu. Netanyahu has a solid lead among Israeli Jews, while Arabs will vote overwhelmingly for Barak or Mordehai. The results are doubly depressing because of Barak's efforts to change the image of the Labor party and get support from Sephardi and religious Jews. Barak's "lead" may be an illusion - because of the large percentage of undecided voters and those who do not answer, many of whom will vote for Bibi. Shimon Peres led by an even larger margin before losing the elections in 1996. (IMRA News Service) Details
Steinmetz Poll (March 30) Most Israeli Jews (55%) think Palestinians deserve a state. About the same percent believe Israel can allow Palestinians a state without danger to security. An even larger percentage (about 80%) believe Palestinians will get a state in any event. Bibi Netanyahu is ranked first as the best PM to negotiate peace. (IMRA News Service) Details
Dahaf Poll (March
17) - Most Israelis believe PM Netanyahu is dishonest and that 'things in Israel
are going in the wrong direction' - in particular the peace process. But most young Jewish
voters define themselves as 'right wing.' (IMRA News Service) Details
April 17 - The following are the results of a survey carried out by Gallup in the
week ending 17 April, 1999 after the Netanyahu-Mordechai television
appearance of a representative sample of 600 adult Israelis. Survey
error +/- 4.5 percentage points for total results.
First Round
Apr 29 Netanyahu 39% Barak 36% Mordechai 8% Begin 3% Bashara 3%
Apr 21 Netanyahu 36% Barak 34% Mordechai 11% Begin 2% Bashara 4%
Apr 18 Netanyahu 38% Barak 37% Mordechai 10% Begin ?% Bashara ?%
Apr 14 Netanyahu 36% Barak 35% Mordechai 15% Begin 3% Bashara 4%
Mar 31 Netanyahu 36% Barak 33% Mordechai 12% Begin 4% Bashara 4%
Mar 24, 1999 Netanyahu 38% Barak 35% Mordechai 12% Begin 5%
Mar 17, 1999 Netanyahu 36% Barak 36% Mordechai 16% Begin 6%
Mar 10, 1999 Netanyahu 33% Barak 34% Mordechai 16% Begin 8%
Mar 3, 1999 Netanyahu 37% Barak 37% Mordechai 17% Begin 4%
Feb 21, 1999 Netanyahu 37% Barak 36% Mordechai 17% Begin 5%
Feb 16, 1999 Netanyahu 39% Barak 36% Mordechai 14% Begin 4%
Feb 10, 1999 Netanyahu 36% Barak 35% Mordechai 19% Begin 4%
Feb 3, 1999 Netanyahu 36% Barak 31% Mordechai 21% Begin 6%
Jan 29, 1999 Netanyahu 36% Barak 35% Mordechai 22% Begin 4%
Jan 24, 1999 Netanyahu 33% Barak 34% Mordechai 20% Begin 7%
Jan 22, 1999 Netanyahu 39% Barak 35% Shahak 14% Begin 6%
Jan 15, 1999 Netanyahu 38% Barak 32% Shahak 16% Begin 8%
Jan 10, 1999 Netanyahu 35% Barak 32% Shahak 17% Begin 7%
Jan 6, 1999 Netanyahu 33% Barak 32% Shahak 20% Begin
8%
Week 30 December Netanyahu 31% Barak 34% Shahak 17% Begin 10%
Week 25 December Netanyahu 27% Barak 30% Shahak 20% Begin 9%
Second Round
Apr 29 1999 Netanyahu 40% Barak 48%
Apr 21 1999 Netanyahu 40% Barak 46%
Apr 18 1999 Netanyahu 44.4% Barak 46.6%
Apr 14 1999 Netanyahu 41% Barak 48%
Mar 31 1999 Netanyahu 42% Barak 45%
Mar 24 1999 Netanyahu 42% Barak 45%
Mar 17 1999 Netanyahu 44% Barak 47%
Mar 10 1999 Netanyahu 43% Barak 43%
Mar 3 1999 Netanyahu 44% Barak 48%
Feb 24 1999 Netanyahu 43% Barak 47%
Feb 21 1999 Netanyahu 47% Barak 46%
Feb 16 1999 Netanyahu 44% Barak 47%
Feb 10 1999 Netanyahu 43% Barak 48%
Feb 3 1999 Netanyahu 43% Barak 49%
Jan 29 1999 Netanyahu 46% Barak 48%
Jan 24 1999 Netanyahu 43% Barak 47%
Jan 22 1999 Netanyahu 47% Barak 46%
Jan 15 1999 Netanyahu 46% Barak 47%
Jan 10 1999 Netanyahu 45% Barak 45%
Jan 6 1999 Netanyahu ? Barak 49% (?=not
shown)
Jan 4 1999 Netanyahu 41% Barak 51%
Week 30 December Netanyahu 40% Barak 49%
Week 25 December Netanyahu 38% Barak 45%
Apr 29 1999
Netanyahu 40% Mordechai 42%
Apr 21 1999 Netanyahu 39% Mordechai 42%
Apr 18 1999 Netanyahu 44.3% Mordechai 44.5%
Apr 14 1999 Netanyahu 41% Mordechai 43%
Mar 31 1999 Netanyahu 38% Mordechai 44%
Mar 24 1999 Netanyahu 41% Mordechai 45%
Mar 17 1999 Netanyahu 41% Mordechai 52%
Mar 10 1999 Netanyahu 41% Mordechai 46%
Mar 3 1999 Netanyahu 38% Mordechai 52%
Feb 24 1999 Netanyahu 39% Mordechai 52%
Feb 21 1999 Netanyahu 39% Mordechai 51%
Feb 16 1999 Netanyahu 42% Mordechai 50%
Feb 10 1999 Netanyahu 38% Mordechai 52%
Feb 3 1999 Netanyahu 39% Mordechai 53%
Jan 29 1999 Netanyahu 39% Mordechai 53%
Jan 24 1999 Netanyahu 44% Mordechai 49%
Jan 22 1999 Netanyahu 44% Shahak 47%
Jan 15 1999 Netanyahu 43% Shahak 47%
Jan 10 1999 Netanyahu 39% Shahak 48%
Jan 6 1999 Netanyahu 39% Shahak 53%
Jan 4 1999 Netanyahu 35% Shahak 54%
Week 30 December Netanyahu 36% Shahak 49%
Details by subgroups:
Second round Netanyahu/Barak
Israeli Jews (excluding new immigrants): Netanyahu 43% Barak 46%
Arabs: Netanyahu 12% Barak 78%
Immigrants from USSR: Netanyahu 54% Barak 31%
Second round Netanyahu/Mordechai
Israeli Jews (excluding new immigrants): Netanyahu 41% Mordechai 46%
Arabs: Netanyahu 10% Mordechai 69%
Immigrants from USSR: Netanyahu 66% Mordechai 6%
Who won the [Netanyahu-Mordechai] debate?
Mordechai 56% Netanyahu 24% Neither 16% Don't know 4%
('Maariv' 15 April, 1999)
In your opinion, did Barak do the right thing when he decided not to
participate in the debate?
Yes 43% No 37% Don't know 20%
Who in your opinion gained the most from the debate?
Netanyahu 18% Barak 25% Mordechai 27%
Who do you think is going to make the second round?
Netanyahu: Yes 85% No 10%
Barak: Yes 75% No 17%
Mordechai: Yes 27% No 62%
Benjamin Begin: Yes 2% No 89%
Bashara: Yes 3% No 88%
Who would win in a second round Netanyahu/Barak?
Total population: Netanyahu 46% Barak 39%
Voting Netanyahu: Netanyahu 84% Barak 3%
Voting Barak: Netanyahu 15% Barak 73%
Who would win in a second round Netanyahu/Mordechai?
Total population: Netanyahu 50% Mordechai 37%
Voting Netanyahu: Netanyahu 83% Mordechai 8%
Voting Mordechai: Netanyahu 24% Mordechai 67%
The Likud claims that Barak will also compromise to the Palestinians
on Jerusalem. Do you agree?
Total: Yes 34% No 57%
Netanyahu voters: Yes 53% No 35%
Barak voters Yes 17% No 78%
There are those who claim that Arafat is involved in the elections in
favor of Barak. Do you agree?
Total: Yes 37% No 45%
Netanyahu voters: Yes 54% No 29%
Barak voters Yes 25% No 59%
Do you support the NATO attack on Serbia in Kosovo?
Total: Yes 48% No 33%
Israeli Jews (excluding new immigrants): Yes 53% No 29%
Arabs: Yes 44% No 48%
Immigrants from USSR: Yes 25% No 45%
('Maariv' 16 April, 1999)
Dahaf Poll
The following are the results of a survey carried out by 'Dahaf'
the week of April 16, 1999 of a representative sample of 500
Israeli adults. Survey error +/- 4.5 percentage points
1. First round:
Apr.14 Netanyahu 33% Barak 34% Mordechai 17% Begin 4% Bashara 3%
Mar.31,1999 Netanyahu 36% Barak 33% Mordechai 17% Begin 4%
Mar.10,1999 Netanyahu 33% Barak 31% Mordechai 18% Begin 4%
Mar. 3,1999 Netanyahu 35% Barak 30% Mordechai 19% Begin 5%
Feb.19,1999 Netanyahu 37% Barak 30% Mordechai 20% Begin 4%
Jan.29,1999 Netanyahu 35% Barak 28% Mordechai 18% Begin 5%
2. Second round
a. Barak/Netanyahu
Apr.14,1999 Netanyahu 42% Barak 47%
Mar.31,1999 Netanyahu 43% Barak 46%
Mar.10,1999 Netanyahu 41% Barak 46%
Mar. 3,1999 Netanyahu 44% Barak 45%
Feb.19,1999 Netanyahu 47% Barak 44%
Jan.29,1999 Netanyahu 46% Barak 43%
Jan.15,1999 Netanyahu 43% Barak 43%
Jan.8, 1999 Netanyahu 40% Barak 45%
Jan.1, 1999 Netanyahu 40% Barak 45%
Dec 25 Netanyahu 42% Barak 44%
Oct 1 Netanyahu 42% Barak 41%
Aug 5 Netanyahu 44% Barak 43%
May 20 Netanyahu 43% Barak 43%
May 6 Netanyahu 40% Barak 40%
b. Mordechai/Netanyahu
Apr.14,1999 - no figure and no reference in text
Mar.31,1999 - figures not shown - Mordechai leads 8 percent*
Mar.10,1999 Netanyahu 37% Mordechai 50%
Mar. 3,1999 Netanyahu 38% Mordechai 49%
Feb.19,1999 Netanyahu 41% Mordechai 48%
Jan.29,1999 Netanyahu 40% Mordechai 47%
Survey of 503 from the CIS:
Should Israel improve relations with Russia? Yes 91% No 8%
If Netanyahu and Sharon act to improve relation with Russia, will
this increase the chances you will vote for Netanyahu?
No 71% Yes 26%
If improving ties with Russia hurts relations with the USA should
Israel continue improving relations with Russia?
No 65% Yes 31%
Vote first round: Netanyahu 52% Barak 21% Mordechai 3% Begin 4%
Second round: Netanyahu 58% Barak 26%
Party: (expressed in the number of seats their votes represent)
Yisrael Baaliyah 6 Yisrael Beytenu 2 Labor 1.4 Likud/Tzomet 1.4
Meretz 0.9 Central 0.3 Undecided 2
('Yediot Ahronot' 16 April, 1999)
------------------------
April 9 1999: Maariv/Gallup in depth survey - cumulative totals of 1 month:
Summary (error 2%)
Jews and Arabs
Round 1:
Netanyahu: 36%
Barak: 35%
Mordehai 14%
Begin 5%
Undecided 10%
Round 2:
Netanyahu: 42%
Barak: 45%
Undecided 13%
Netanyahu: 40%
Mordehai: 46%
Undecided 14%
Jews Only
Round 1:
Netanyahu: 39%
Barak: 32%
Mordehai 14%
Begin 5%
Undecided 10%
Round 2:
Netanyahu: 46%
Barak: 41%
Undecided 13%
Netanyahu: 43%
Mordehai: 43%
Undecided 14%
Subgroups:
Netanyahu/Barak vote in second round by group:
Ultra Orthodox: Netanyahu 77% Barak 6%
Religious: Netanyahu 77% Barak 12%
Traditional: Netanyahu 59% Barak 30%
Secular: Netanyahu 25% Barak 65%
Age 18-24: Netanyahu 49% Barak 40%
Age 55+: Netanyahu 38% Barak 46%
Men: Netanyahu 43%
Barak 46%
Women: Netanyahu 41% Barak 45%
Low education: Netanyahu 44% Barak 44%
High education: Netanyahu 36% Barak 51%
Very low income: Netanyahu 52% Barak 35%
Very high income:Netanyahu 34% Barak 57%
Israeli born Sephardi father: Netanyahu 59% Barak 27%
Israeli born Ashkenazi father: Netanyahu 28% Barak 60%
Second round voting NOT for Netanyahu by group
('Barak'= vote Barak in Barak/Netanyahu second round,
'Mordechai'=vote Mordechai in Mordechai/Netanyahu second round)
Voted Peres in '96: Barak 74% Mordechai 66%
Voted Netanyahu in '96: Barak 11% Mordechai 15%
Arabs: Barak 79% Mordechai 71%
Religious: Barak 12% Mordechai 17%
Traditional: Barak 30% Mordechai 38%
Israeli born Sephardi father: Barak 27% Mordechai 40%
Israeli born Ashkenazi father: Barak 60% Mordechai 60%
New immigrants: Barak 19% Netanyahu 10%
Voted Begin first round Barak 11% Mordechai 23%
Voted Mordechai first round Barak 56%
Weekly Gallup Polls - Israelis and Arabs.
Error: +/- 4.5 %
First Round
Mar 31 Netanyahu 36% Barak 33% Mordechai 12% Begin 4% Bishara 4%
Mar 31, 1999 Netanyahu 36% Barak 35% Mordechai 13% Begin 4% (without Bishara)
Mar 24, 1999 Netanyahu 38% Barak 35% Mordechai 12% Begin 5%
Mar 17, 1999 Netanyahu 36% Barak 36% Mordechai 16% Begin 6%
Mar 10, 1999 Netanyahu 33% Barak 34% Mordechai 16% Begin 8%
Mar 3, 1999 Netanyahu 37% Barak 37% Mordechai 17% Begin 4%
Feb 21, 1999 Netanyahu 37% Barak 36% Mordechai 17% Begin 5%
Feb 16, 1999 Netanyahu 39% Barak 36% Mordechai 14% Begin 4%
Feb 10, 1999 Netanyahu 36% Barak 35% Mordechai 19% Begin 4%
Feb 3, 1999 Netanyahu 36% Barak 31% Mordechai 21% Begin 6%
Jan 29, 1999 Netanyahu 36% Barak 35% Mordechai 22% Begin 4%
Jan 24, 1999 Netanyahu 33% Barak 34% Mordechai 20% Begin 7%
Jan 22, 1999 Netanyahu 39% Barak 35% Shahak 14% Begin 6%
Jan 15, 1999 Netanyahu 38% Barak 32% Shahak 16% Begin 8%
Jan 10, 1999 Netanyahu 35% Barak 32% Shahak 17% Begin 7%
Jan 6, 1999 Netanyahu 33% Barak 32% Shahak 20% Begin
8%
Dec 30 1998 Netanyahu 31% Barak 34% Shahak 17% Begin 10%
Dec 25 1998 Netanyahu 27% Barak 30% Shahak 20% Begin 9%
Second Round
Mar 31 1999 Netanyahu 42% Barak 45%
Mar 24 1999 Netanyahu 42% Barak 45%
Mar 17 1999 Netanyahu 44% Barak 47%
Mar 10 1999 Netanyahu 43% Barak 43%
Mar 3 1999 Netanyahu 44% Barak 48%
Feb 24 1999 Netanyahu 43% Barak 47%
Feb 21 1999 Netanyahu 47% Barak 46%
Feb 16 1999 Netanyahu 44% Barak 47%
Feb 10 1999 Netanyahu 43% Barak 48%
Feb 3 1999 Netanyahu 43% Barak 49%
Jan 29 1999 Netanyahu 46% Barak 48%
Jan 24 1999 Netanyahu 43% Barak 47%
Jan 22 1999 Netanyahu 47% Barak 46%
Jan 15 1999 Netanyahu 46% Barak 47%
Jan 10 1999 Netanyahu 45% Barak 45%
Jan 6 1999 Netanyahu ? Barak 49% (?=not
shown)
Jan 4 1999 Netanyahu 41% Barak 51%
Week 30 December Netanyahu 40% Barak 49%
Week 25 December Netanyahu 38% Barak 45%
Mar 31 1999 Netanyahu 38% Mordechai 44%
Mar 24 1999 Netanyahu 41% Mordechai 45%
Mar 17 1999 Netanyahu 41% Mordechai 52%
Mar 10 1999 Netanyahu 41% Mordechai 46%
Mar 3 1999 Netanyahu 38% Mordechai 52%
Feb 24 1999 Netanyahu 39% Mordechai 52%
Feb 21 1999 Netanyahu 39% Mordechai 51%
Feb 16 1999 Netanyahu 42% Mordechai 50%
Feb 10 1999 Netanyahu 38% Mordechai 52%
Feb 3 1999 Netanyahu 39% Mordechai 53%
Jan 29 1999 Netanyahu 39% Mordechai 53%
Jan 24 1999 Netanyahu 44% Mordechai 49%
Jan 22 1999 Netanyahu 44% Shahak 47%
Jan 15 1999 Netanyahu 43% Shahak 47%
Jan 10 1999 Netanyahu 39% Shahak 48%
Jan 6 1999 Netanyahu 39% Shahak 53%
Jan 4 1999 Netanyahu 35% Shahak 54%
Week 30 December Netanyahu 36% Shahak 49%
('Maariv' 2 April, 1999)
Dahaf Poll
The following are the results of a survey carried out by 'Dahaf' the week of April 2, 1999
of a representative sample of 501 Israeli adults. Survey error +/- 4 percentage points
1. First round:
Mar.31,1999 Netanyahu 36% Barak 33% Mordechai 17% Begin 4%
Mar.10,1999 Netanyahu 33% Barak 31% Mordechai 18% Begin 4%
Mar. 3,1999 Netanyahu 35% Barak 30% Mordechai 19% Begin 5%
Feb.19,1999 Netanyahu 37% Barak 30% Mordechai 20% Begin 4%
Jan.29,1999 Netanyahu 35% Barak 28% Mordechai 18% Begin 5%
2. Second round
a. Barak/Netanyahu
Mar.31,1999 Netanyahu 43% Barak 46%
Mar.10,1999 Netanyahu 41% Barak 46%
Mar. 3,1999 Netanyahu 44% Barak 45%
Feb.19,1999 Netanyahu 47% Barak 44%
Jan.29,1999 Netanyahu 46% Barak 43%
Jan.15,1999 Netanyahu 43% Barak 43%
Jan.8, 1999 Netanyahu 40% Barak 45%
Jan.1, 1999 Netanyahu 40% Barak 45%
Dec 25 Netanyahu 42% Barak 44%
Oct 1 Netanyahu 42% Barak 41%
Aug 5 Netanyahu 44% Barak 43%
May 20 Netanyahu 43% Barak 43%
May 6 Netanyahu 40% Barak 40%
b. Mordechai/Netanyahu
Mar.31,1999 - figures not shown - Mordechai leads 8 percent
Mar.10,1999 Netanyahu 37% Mordechai 50%
Mar. 3,1999 Netanyahu 38% Mordechai 49%
Feb.19,1999 Netanyahu 41% Mordechai 48%
Jan.29,1999 Netanyahu 40% Mordechai 47%
Should Israel, at its own initiative, send help to the Albanians in
Kosovo? Yes 72% No 21% Don't know 7%
('Yediot Ahronot' 2 April, 1999)
JMCC Public Opinion Poll No. 31 On
Palestinian Attitudes Towards Politics March 1999
Jerusalem Media & Communication Centre (JMCC)
PO Box 25047, East Jerusalem, Palestine
Tel. 972-2-5819777, Fax. 972-2-5829534
E-mail: jmcc@jmcc.org
A random sample of 1199 people over the age of 18 were interviewed in person throughout
the West Bank and Gaza Strip on 18, 19 March 1999.
Results
Q.1 How optimistic or pessimistic are you about reaching a peaceful Arab-Israeli
settlement? Would you say you are:
Very Optimistic 4.8 Optimistic 64.2
Pessimistic 23.9 Very Pessimistic 6.3
No answer 0.8
Q.2 What is your opinion about the Oslo agreement? Can you say you strongly support,
support, oppose, strongly oppose?
Strongly support 5.2 Support 50.9
Oppose 29.8 Strongly oppose 8.3
No answer 5.8
Q.3 In general, do you support or oppose the current peace process between the
Palestinians and Israel?
Support 63.7 Oppose 34.7 No anaswer 1.6
Q.3-1 Do you strongly support, somewhat, support, strongly oppose, or somewhat oppose?
Strongly Support 19.5 Support 44.5
Strongly oppose 15.1 Somewhat oppose 19.8
No answer 1.1
Q.4 In general, how do you evaluate the Palestinian Legislative Council's performance? Do
you say it is very good performance, good, bad, or very bad?
Very good 5.3 Good 44.3
Bad 33.2 Very bad 10.8
No answer 6.4
Q.5 In general, how do you evaluate the Palestinians Authority's performance? Do you say
it is very good,good, bad, or very bad?
Very good 7.2 Good 54.8
Bad 24.3 Very bad 10.7
No answer 3.0
Q.6 Some participated in the PLC elections while others boycotted them, now three years
after those elections, do you think the boycott
decision was correct or wrong?
Correct 32.0 Wrong 57.2 No answer 10.8
Q.7 Which of the following problems do you believe is the most important facing the
Palestinian people?
Jerusalem 46.2 Refugees 14.8 Settlements 30.8 Other 2.1 No answer 6.1
Q.8 Which Palestinian figure do you trust most?
Yasser Arafat 38.8 Ahmad Yaseen 9.5 Haidar Abdul Shafi 6.1
Others 12.0 Don't trust anyone 26.8 No answer 6.8
Q.9 Which political or religious faction do you trust most?
Fateh 37.6 Hamas 14.7 Popular Front 2.0 Islamic Jihad 2.6
Others 2.8 Do not trust anyone 31.0 No answer 9.3
Q.10 Do you trust or distrust the judicial and courts system in Palestine? Would you say
fully trust it, have some trust or distrust?
Fully trust it 21.7 Have some trust 35.0
Distrust it 36.8 No opinion 4.7 No answer 1.8
Q.11 In the case of the establishment of a Palestinian state, do you think the state
should be run according to Islamic law or according to secular non-religious laws?
Islamic Law 79.8 Secular non-religious Laws 15.8 No answer 4.4
Q.12 Now, I will ask you about some Palestinian fugures, please tell me if you trust,
distrust, or have no information about them?
Trust Middle Distrust No info
Yasser Arafat
62.9
16.7 16.2 2.9
Ahmad Yaseen
54.6
24.0 14.1 5.7
Haidar Abdul Shafi 47.0 20.3
14.2 16.7
Faisal al-Husseini 35.9 27.6
20.9 13.4
Sa'eb Erekat
33.1
25.7 21.9 17.7
Hanan Ashrawi
32.7
28.1 25.0 11.5
Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) 25.8 24.2 24.9
23.2
Jibreel Rajoub
16.9 16.2 36.0 28.1
Muhammad Dahlan 13.3
18.7 31.5 33.9
Geroge Habash
13.2
16.7 37.6 29.2
Q.13 Now, I will ask you about some Palestinian political and religious figures, please
tell me if you trust, distrust, or have inadequate information?
Trust Middle Distrust No info
Fateh
53.0 19.3 22.4 3.4
Hamas
41.0 30.3 22.8 3.9
Palestinian People's Party 9.0 20.8
44.9 22.9
Democratic Front
7.3 19.9 49.4 21.0
Popular Front
11.3 20.3 46.5 19.4
Islamic Jihad
27.3 32.4 25.4 12.5
Q14. To what extent do you support or oppose having a national coalition governent
consisting of all the political and religious parties, including the opposition?
Strongly support 36.5 Somewhat support 34.2 In between 17.8
Somewhat oppose 5.3 Strongly oppose 3.2 No answer 3.0
Q15 If the Palestinian Authority implements the Islamic law, how will this effect your
position from the authority; will it increase your support, decrease your support,
increase your opposition, or will it not affect your position at all?
Increase my support 63.9 Decrease my support 2.4
Will not affect 27.0
Increase my opposition 1.9 Decrease my opposition 2.9 No answer 1.9
Q16 Do you think President Arafat is doing his job as president for the National Authority
in a good, fari, bad or very bad way?
Good 49.4 Fair 32.1 Bad 10.5 Very bad 5.3 No answer 2.7
Q17. To what extent do you support or oppose the idea of forming a national salvation
authority through which Hamas can join in government?
Support 43.3 In between 37.7 Oppose 12.5 No answer 6.5
Q18 Which position serves Hamas best, Taking power, participating in the authority with
others or not participating at all in the authority?
Taking power 10.2 Participating the authority with others 59.4
Not participating at all 21.5 No answer 8.9
Q19. Do you support the resumption of military operations against Israeli targets as an
appropriate response in the currently political conditions or do you oppose them as they
harm the national interest?
Support 35.7 Oppose 56.0 No answer 8.3
Q20. What about suicidal bombing operations, do you see them as an appropriate response in
the currently political conditions or do you oppose them as they harm the national
interest?
Support 26.1 Oppose 66.5 No answer 7.4
Q21 Fateh is considered the main party in the Authority while Hamas is considered the main
opposition pole; to what extent do you believe int he possibility of any cooperation
between them?
Great opportunity 12.9 Small opportunity 54.7
No opportunity at all 27.4 No answer 5.0
Q22. The recent period witnessed issuing and executing death penalty sentences in the
national authority areas; what is your position regarding the death penalty in the PA
areas?
Support 17.0 In between 25.9 Oppose 54.8 No answer 2.3
Q23 If Likud Party loses the elections and the Labor Party assumes power in the next
elections, do you think the Palestinian political condition, in general, will become
better or it will stay the same or worse?
Better 24.5 Will stay the same 50.2 Worse 18.8
No answer 6.5
Q24. If the possibility of having an independent Palestinian state with sovereignty in the
West Bank (including East Jerusalem) reaches a dead end, do you strongly support, support,
oppose or strongly oppose the idea of establishing a joint state for Israelis and
Palestinians in all Palestine (Israel, the West Bank and Gaza Strip)?
Strongly support 2.8 Support 15.5 Neither support nor oppose 18.3
Oppose 34.7 Strongly oppose 24.1 No answer 4.6
Q25. If the possibility of having an independent Palestinian State with sovereignty in the
West Bank (including East Jerusalem) reaches a dead end, do you strongly support, support,
oppose, or strongly
oppose the idea of establishing an Islamic state in all Palestine (Israel, the West Bank
and Gaza Strip)?
Strongly support 24.7 Support 38.8 Neither support nor oppose 18.2
Oppose 11.6 Strongly oppose 2.6 No answer 4.1
Q26 if the possibility of having an independent Palestinian state with sovereignty in the
West Bank (including East Jerusalem) reaches a dead end, to what extent do you support or
oppose the authority in
taking the following positions:
A. Keep negotiating with Israel to salvage what can be salvages
Strongly support 15.8 Support 40.9 Middle 12.6
Oppose strongly 20.7 Oppose 8.0 No answer 2.0
B. Wait till a change in the balance of power
Strongly support 7.0 Support 27.2 Middle 20.4
Oppose strongly 31.0 Oppose 7.9 No answer 6.5
C. Demand linking with Jordan
Strongly support 5.9 Support 28.8 Middle 23.0
Oppose strongly 26.9 Oppose 9.1 No answer 6.3
D. Demand the establishment of a joint state for Palestinians and Israelis in all
Palestine
Strongly support 3.2 support 16.6 Middle 15.3
Oppose strongly 38.7 Oppose 21.4 No answer 4.8
E. Go back to armed struggle
Strongly support 17.0 Support 28.8 Middle 18.4
Oppose strongly 26.9 Oppose 4.5 No answer 4.4
F.Go back to popular struggle
Strongly support 20.6 support 32.7 Middle 14.4
Oppose strongly 23.9 Oppose 4.1 No answer
SteinMetz Poll - March 30 1999
The Peace Index Project is conducted by the
Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace
Research at Tel Aviv University, headed by Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Dr. Tamar
Hermann and executed by Teleseker. For the March 30, 1999 survey, 497
Israeli Jews - a representative sample - were interviewed by telephone. Error: about 4.5%.
1. Do you believe or not believe that in the coming years there will be
peace between Israel and the Arabs?
Certain there will be peace 14.6%
Think there will be peace 28.1%
In the middle 19.3%
Think there will not be peace 13.9%
Certain there will not be peace 19.4%
Don't know/no opinion 4.7%
2. In general, do you consider yourself a supporter or opponent of the peace process
between Israel and the Arabs?
Greatly opposed 5.6% Somewhat opposed 5.3%
In the middle 9.5% Somewhat supportive 30.0%
Greatly supportive 47.1% Don't know/no opinion 2.5 %
3. What is your opinion of the agreement that was signed in Oslo between Israel
and the PLO (Agreement of Principles)?
Heavily in favor 23.4% Somewhat in favor 25.5% In the middle 24.5%
Somewhat opposed 8.7% Heavily opposed 13.5%
Don't know/no opinion 4.5%
4. Do you believe or not believe that the Oslo Agreement between Israel and
the PLO will bring about peace between Israel and the Palestinians in the coming
years?
Greatly believe 15.8% Somewhat believe 27.6%
In the middle 18.4% Somewhat don't believe 12.4%
Certainly don't believe 22.3% Don't know/no opinion 3.5 %
5. What is your position regarding support for a full peace treaty between Israel and
Syria in exchange for full withdrawal from the Golan Heights?
Greatly in favor 14.5% Somewhat in favor 16.4% In the middle 16.4%
Some what opposed 16.1% Greatly opposed 33.0%
Don't know/have no opinion 3.5%
6. Do you believe or not believe that in the coming years there will be peace between
Israel and Syria?
Certain there will be peace 8.6%
Think there will be peace 27.1% In the middle 19.9%
Think there will not be peace 21.7%
Certain there will not be peace 17.6%
Don't know/have no opinion 5.1%
7. The Palestinians claim that they deserve their own independent state.
What is you opinion on this claim?
Very justified 19.2% Considerably justified 35.4%
Considerably unjustified 14.5% Completely unjustified 28.1%
Don't know 2.8%
8. What do you think are the chances that the current peace process will lead in the
end to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state?
Certain yes 29.0% Yes 40.1% No 17.1% Certain no 8.0% Don't know 5.8%
9. Do you think that within the framework of a peace treaty with the Palestinians
Israel can allow itself to agree to the establishment of an independent Palestinians
state?
Certain yes 20.8% yes 34.8% no 15.4% Certain no 23.5% Don't know 5.5%
10. What government will succeed, in your opinion, best to advance the peace
process while protecting the interests of Israel within the framework of
negotiations with various Arabs?
A government headed by:
Barak 31.4% Netanyahu 36.7% Mordechai 12.4% All same 8.8% Don't know 10.6%
11. There are those that claim that any government established after the elections will in
the end reach a final settlement with the Palestinians that includes withdrawal from
territories and recognition of a Palestinian state. To what extent is this correct?
Very correct 25.0% Correct 37.2% Not so correct 23.1% Completely incorrect 10.5%
12. There are those that claim that any government established after the elections will in
the end agree to compromise with the Palestinians over Jerusalem. To what extent is
this correct?
Very correct 12.6% Correct 19.7%
Not so correct 25.6% Completely incorrect 37.7% Don't know 4.6%
13. In your estimation, will Arafat declare the establishment of an independent
Palestinian state on May 4?
Certain yes 6.7% Appears yes 19.8%
Appears no 35.0% Certainly no 32.5% Don't know 6.1%
14. If Arafat declares the establishment of an independent Palestinian state on May 4, how
should Israel react?
45.3% Stop negotiations with the Palestinians
46.8% Continue negotiations with the Palestinians
7.8% Don't know
15. If Arafat declares the establishment of an independent Palestinian state on May 4,
would this move strengthen the right wing parties, left wing parties or have no
influence on the upcoming elections?
43.9% Strengthen right wing parties
11.6% Strengthen left wing parties
31.6% No effect
12.9% Don't know
16. Do you agree or disagree with the following view: In truth, the majority of the
Palestinians have not accepted the existence of the State of Israel and would destroy
it if they could, despite that the PLO is negotiating for peace with Israel.
Completely agree 33.7% Considerably agree 14.3% So-so 19.8%
Considerably disagree 9.6% Completely disagree 18.8% Don't know 3.9%
For reference purposes - February 1998 question:
Do you agree or disagree with the following view: The majority of the Arabs
have not accepted the existence of the State of Israel and would destroy it if they
could?
Agree a lot 38.4% Considerably agree 21.6% So-so Middle 15.4%
Considerably disagree 16.7% Completely disagree 6.3% Don't know 1.6%
Previous Polls
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